Today: AA 5234 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet today AA 5234 DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 5113 DAY 17:53 → CLT 19:28 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5234 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 06:31	CLT 08:20	9%	6%	0.8%	89%
AA 5242 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 08:30	CLT 10:19	10%	6%	0.7%	89%
AA 5490 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 13:53	CLT 15:40	15%	4%	0.8%	75%
AA 5385 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 12:10	CLT 13:45	15%	10%	0.6%	88%
AA 5158 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 17:51	CLT 19:40	17%	6%	0.8%	60%
AA 5113 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 17:53	CLT 19:28	20%	5%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON