Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5159 at 09:34 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 5159 DAY 09:34 → DCA 11:10 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 5162 DAY 17:40 → DCA 19:15 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5159 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 09:34	DCA 11:10	14%	7%	0.8%	87%
AA 5261 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 06:00	DCA 07:39	14%	7%	1.5%	85%
AA 5108 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 09:41	DCA 11:19	15%	7%	0.8%	80%
OH 5210 PSA	DAY 13:06	DCA 14:46	27%	12%	1.3%	no record
AA 5284 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 16:48	DCA 18:31	35%	16%	1.3%	44%
AA 5162 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 17:40	DCA 19:15	39%	18%	1.6%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON