Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:43 am at Dayton)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 1235 at 09:01, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 1235 United Flight history →	DAY 09:01	DEN 10:04	10%	3%	0.2%	94%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Dayton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	5h 15m	97%	90%
American Details →	DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 13:33 → DEN 15:02AA 2174	8h 32m	99%	82%
United Details →	DAY 10:23 → IAD 11:53UA 4181 · flown by GoJet	2h 42m Dulles	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	8h 06m	96%	82%
United Details →	DAY 18:15 → ORD 18:51UA 4749 · flown by SkyWest	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 22:15 → DEN 00:06 +1UA 767	7h 51m	93%	79%
United Details →	DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 10:54 → DEN 12:45UA 581	7h 30m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	8h 33m	100%	79%
American Details →	DAY 12:36 → ORD 12:52AA 4226 · flown by Envoy	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 15:26 → DEN 17:29AA 1317	6h 53m	100%	79%
American Details →	DAY 06:04 → PHL 07:59AA 5229 · flown by PSA	1h 36m Philadelphia	PHL 09:35 → DEN 11:56AA 3312	7h 52m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DAY 11:39 → ORD 12:05UA 4453 · flown by GoJet	51m Chicago	ORD 12:56 → DEN 14:46UA 1150	5h 07m	71%	61%
United Details →	DAY 18:15 → ORD 18:51UA 4749 · flown by SkyWest	54m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DEN 21:19UA 329	5h 04m	59%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON