Today: AA 5157 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet today AA 5157 DAY 07:09 → DFW 08:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 5163 DAY 13:34 → DFW 15:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5157 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 07:09	DFW 08:50	11%	6%	1.4%	87%
AA 5125 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 08:15	DFW 09:56	16%	6%	1.4%	84%
AA 5115 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 18:25	DFW 20:10	25%	6%	0.7%	74%
OH 5114 PSA	DAY 13:37	DFW 15:22	26%	12%	1.2%	no record
AA 5156 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 18:32	DFW 20:11	28%	8%	0.8%	61%
AA 5163 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 13:34	DFW 15:10	30%	14%	1.2%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON