Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3590 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3590 DAY 05:55 → ORD 06:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4749 DAY 18:15 → ORD 18:51 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3590 Envoy	DAY 05:55	ORD 06:41	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3786 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DAY 12:29	ORD 12:54	13%	3%	0.7%	96%
AA 4226 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DAY 12:36	ORD 12:53	14%	3%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
AA 4974 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DAY 08:49	ORD 09:30	16%	5%	0.8%	83%
OO 4806 SkyWest	DAY 11:32	ORD 11:49	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 4747 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DAY 14:23	ORD 14:55	28%	8%	0.8%	66%
AA 5008 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DAY 16:07	ORD 16:42	30%	9%	0.8%	71%
UA 4749 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DAY 18:15	ORD 18:51	30%	7%	0.8%	80%
UA 4415 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 05:40	ORD 05:55	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
UA 4402 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 07:15	ORD 07:55	17%	9%	2.2%	83%
UA 4453 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 11:39	ORD 12:05	21%	12%	2.3%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON