tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:49 am at Dayton); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:38, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DAY 18:38 → ATL 20:29DL 3088 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 21m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → DAY 15:56 → ATL 17:40DL 2763 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174 6h 31m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → DAY 12:36 → ORD 12:51AA 4226 · flown by Envoy 2h 51m Chicago ORD 15:42 → PHL 19:03AA 2840 6h 27m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573 6h 20m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → DAY 11:39 → ORD 12:05UA 4453 · flown by GoJet 2h 25m Chicago ORD 14:30 → PHL 17:52UA 2430 6h 13m 92% 73%
AmericanDetails → DAY 17:51 → CLT 19:40AA 5158 · flown by PSA 2h 49m Charlotte CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189 6h 31m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 15:05 → PHL 17:12DL 1169 5h 49m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → DAY 18:15 → ORD 18:51UA 4749 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Chicago ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744 6h 42m 93% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON