Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3414 at 20:52 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–45%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3414 DCA 20:52 → BHM 22:08 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5643 DCA 20:00 → BHM 21:13 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3414 Envoy	DCA 20:52	BHM 22:08	26%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 5332 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:03	BHM 10:16	36%	16%	1.5%	92%worse than usual
AA 5080 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:49	BHM 10:02	37%	14%	1.5%	83%worse than usual
OH 5226 PSA	DCA 15:02	BHM 16:17	42%	19%	1.3%	no record
AA 5643 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:00	BHM 21:13	45%	17%	1.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON