tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:40 pm at Washington); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 18:59, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Cedar Rapids on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 22:15 → CID 23:26DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor 5h 27m 77% 64%
UnitedDetails → DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148 1h 48m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CID 22:42UA 1923 5h 32m 90% 57%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 2h 51m Charlotte CLT 22:28 → CID 23:44AA 1887 6h 54m 94% 47%
UnitedDetails → DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193 1h 17m Chicago ORD 21:49 → CID 23:01UA 254 4h 51m 80% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 19:07 → CLT 20:49AA 3263 1h 39m Charlotte CLT 22:28 → CID 23:44AA 1887 5h 37m 72% 36%
UnitedDetails → DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193 48m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CID 22:42UA 1923 4h 32m 57% 35%
AmericanDetails → DCA 20:06 → ORD 21:42AA 2903 53m Chicago ORD 22:35 → CID 23:49AA 3326 4h 43m 61% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON