tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:06 am at Washington); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: YX 4484 at 22:04 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–46%.

Safest bet today YX 4484 DCA 22:04 → CLE 23:36 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5132 DCA 17:55 → CLE 19:29 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time
Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
YX 4484 Republic DCA 22:04 CLE 23:36 14% 3% 0.7% no record
MQ 4096 Envoy DCA 14:14 CLE 15:44 16% 4% 0.4% no record
YX 4509 Republic DCA 17:10 CLE 18:42 19% 4% 0.2% no record
AA 5535 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 12:01 CLE 13:34 28% 10% 0.6% 76%
AA 5126 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 12:13 CLE 13:40 30% 10% 0.7% 68%
OH 5512 PSA DCA 08:18 CLE 09:16 35% 9% 0.9% no record
AA 5470 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 14:56 CLE 16:34 36% 11% 0.8% 57%
AA 5079 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 22:30 CLE 23:59 38% 15% 1.3% 43%
AA 5132 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 17:55 CLE 19:29 46% 17% 0.7% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON