Today: AA 4398 at 17:13 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–36%.

Safest bet today AA 4398 DCA 17:13 → CMH 18:54 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 5197 DCA 22:15 → CMH 23:50 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4398 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:13	CMH 18:54	18%	4%	0.3%	73%
AA 4402 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 16:59	CMH 18:36	21%	5%	0.3%	67%
AA 5197 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:15	CMH 23:50	36%	10%	1.0%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON