Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5159 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 5159 DCA 07:29 → DAY 09:04 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5162 DCA 15:32 → DAY 17:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5159 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:29	DAY 09:04	21%	7%	0.8%	94%worse than usual
AA 5131 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:04	DAY 11:43	23%	9%	0.8%	82%
AA 5473 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:17	DAY 21:00	30%	19%	0.8%	54%
AA 5162 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:32	DAY 17:10	35%	16%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON