Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: F9 685 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–36%.

Safest bet that day F9 685 DCA 07:00 → DEN 09:01 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 689 DCA 18:00 → DEN 20:07 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 685 Frontier Flight history →	DCA 07:00	DEN 09:01	20%	9%	0.5%	86%
UA 746 United Flight history →	DCA 16:13	DEN 18:25	25%	6%	0.6%	80%
F9 687 Frontier Flight history →	DCA 13:59	DEN 15:53	31%	8%	1.2%	84%worse than usual
F9 689 Frontier Flight history →	DCA 18:00	DEN 20:07	36%	9%	1.0%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 47m	91%	84%
Southwest Details →	DCA 12:00 → STL 13:15WN 4752	1h 09m St Louis	STL 14:24 → DEN 15:44WN 4064	5h 44m	81%	72%
United Details →	DCA 14:00 → ORD 15:18UA 1888	57m Chicago	ORD 16:15 → DEN 17:47UA 1882	5h 47m	75%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON