Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2007 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2007 DCA 05:04 → DFW 07:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 655 DCA 17:06 → DFW 19:40 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2007 American Flight history →	DCA 05:04	DFW 07:34	8%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 2243 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	DFW 07:22	9%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 1839 American Flight history →	DCA 06:59	DFW 09:25	14%	4%	3.2%	90%
AA 1978 American Flight history →	DCA 07:59	DFW 10:31	18%	5%	2.7%	84%
AA 1494 American	DCA 10:02	DFW 12:35	22%	6%	2.6%	no record
AA 1618 American Flight history →	DCA 10:00	DFW 12:21	24%	6%	2.1%	80%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DCA 11:59	DFW 14:23	25%	7%	1.8%	76%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DCA 13:44	DFW 16:11	26%	7%	2.0%	78%
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DCA 15:13	DFW 17:44	27%	8%	2.2%	82%
AA 1158 American Flight history →	DCA 13:36	DFW 16:09	28%	6%	1.8%	61%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DCA 17:11	DFW 19:41	35%	9%	2.1%	65%
AA 655 American	DCA 17:06	DFW 19:40	35%	9%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON