Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 379 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–41%.

Safest bet that day B6 379 DCA 06:00 → FLL 08:32 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest B6 1979 DCA 20:55 → FLL 23:30 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 379 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:00	FLL 08:32	12%	4%	0.7%	77%
WN 1492 Southwest	DCA 11:40	FLL 14:29	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DCA 07:53	FLL 10:36	16%	3%	0.9%	89%
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:59	FLL 10:40	20%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 1873 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	FLL 11:01	20%	3%	0.9%	72%
WN 4562 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 14:35	FLL 17:15	27%	6%	0.6%	28%
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 15:10	FLL 17:51	34%	13%	0.7%	61%
B6 1979 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 20:55	FLL 23:30	41%	14%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON