Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 934 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 934 DCA 06:06 → HOU 08:24 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1433 DCA 12:35 → HOU 14:45 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 934 Southwest	DCA 06:06	HOU 08:24	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1432 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:15	HOU 08:25	13%	2%	0.8%	90%
WN 1494 Southwest	DCA 13:05	HOU 15:31	35%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2730 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 18:10	HOU 20:35	36%	8%	0.6%	26%
WN 1433 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 12:35	HOU 14:45	38%	6%	0.6%	47%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 45m	91%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON