Today: YX 4657 at 20:08 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–33%.

Safest bet today YX 4657 DCA 20:08 → HSV 21:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5213 DCA 11:37 → HSV 12:43 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4657 Republic	DCA 20:08	HSV 21:23	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3581 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 16:47	HSV 17:57	22%	6%	0.8%	77%
AA 3997 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 08:20	HSV 09:26	22%	7%	1.2%	80%
MQ 4249 Envoy	DCA 16:42	HSV 17:47	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4128 Envoy	DCA 11:55	HSV 13:04	24%	14%	1.1%	no record
AA 5557 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:59	HSV 21:10	29%	14%	0.8%	68%
AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:37	HSV 12:43	33%	24%	1.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON