Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4551 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 4551 DCA 06:30 → JFK 07:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4474 DCA 19:58 → JFK 21:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4551 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:30	JFK 07:57	6%	2%	1.2%	94%
DL 5802 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:06	JFK 07:29	6%	2%	1.2%	93%
B6 254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:20	JFK 07:28	15%	4%	0.9%	91%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:06	JFK 12:25	16%	4%	0.8%	94%
DL 5624 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:00	JFK 12:17	18%	4%	0.9%	74%
AA 4781 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:54	JFK 16:29	19%	6%	0.9%	62%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:00	JFK 18:39	25%	7%	1.2%	67%
AA 4474 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:58	JFK 21:30	26%	8%	1.2%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON