Today: AA 1966 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet today AA 1966 DCA 08:40 → LAX 11:19 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3283 DCA 18:01 → LAX 20:41 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1966 American Flight history →	DCA 08:40	LAX 11:19	22%	4%	0.2%	83%
AS 5 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LAX 12:27	26%	4%	0.5%	71%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	28%	8%	0.1%	75%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	33%	10%	0.2%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → LAX 12:30WN 2433	8h 00m	95%	77%
United Details →	DCA 10:30 → ORD 11:48UA 2201	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 13:00 → LAX 15:34UA 1363	8h 04m	91%	73%
United Details →	DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 10:46 → LAX 13:17UA 2170	7h 52m	90%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON