Today: AA 5268 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet today AA 5268 DCA 06:59 → MCI 08:47 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 5505 DCA 14:54 → MCI 16:48 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5268 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 06:59	MCI 08:47	11%	7%	1.0%	89%
YX 4570 Republic	DCA 19:44	MCI 21:50	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 4694 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:59	MCI 22:49	19%	6%	0.8%	67%
OH 5524 PSA	DCA 08:00	MCI 09:59	21%	9%	1.1%	no record
WN 1322 Southwest	DCA 19:35	MCI 21:28	27%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3514 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 20:30	MCI 22:30	28%	6%	0.8%	43%
OH 5085 PSA	DCA 14:18	MCI 16:21	29%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 1146 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 15:00	MCI 16:40	29%	7%	0.5%	29%
WN 1498 Southwest	DCA 15:40	MCI 17:32	32%	8%	0.5%	no record
AA 5505 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:54	MCI 16:48	33%	9%	1.0%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON