Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1500 at 06:12, 5%.

Safest bet that day WN 1500 DCA 06:12 → MCO 08:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2523 DCA 18:55 → MCO 21:17 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1500 Southwest	DCA 06:12	MCO 08:40	5%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 4580 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 06:00	MCO 08:20	6%	1%	1.0%	95%
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:59	MCO 09:20	9%	2%	2.1%	82%
AA 592 American Flight history →	DCA 06:30	MCO 08:55	15%	3%	1.3%	90%
AA 3273 American Flight history →	DCA 07:45	MCO 10:14	19%	3%	0.9%	97%worse than usual
B6 2423 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:25	MCO 09:46	20%	4%	1.0%	79%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	DCA 07:56	MCO 10:17	22%	3%	0.9%	74%
AA 2104 American Flight history →	DCA 09:00	MCO 11:28	23%	4%	0.9%	90%worse than usual
AA 1643 American	DCA 10:57	MCO 13:31	23%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2062 American Flight history →	DCA 11:25	MCO 13:51	25%	6%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
WN 4891 Southwest	DCA 12:40	MCO 14:57	30%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 1440 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 13:05	MCO 15:25	31%	10%	1.2%	57%
DL 1007 Delta Flight history →	DCA 13:50	MCO 16:18	31%	10%	2.3%	54%
B6 1923 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:50	MCO 14:04	33%	12%	0.9%	71%
WN 1441 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 17:25	MCO 20:00	44%	19%	1.2%	32%
AA 2139 American Flight history →	DCA 17:25	MCO 19:56	46%	16%	1.8%	57%
B6 2523 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:55	MCO 21:17	51%	26%	1.6%	62%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON