Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2276 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2276 DCA 07:56 → MDW 09:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1445 DCA 12:00 → MDW 13:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2276 Southwest	DCA 07:56	MDW 09:05	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1442 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 07:30	MDW 08:25	15%	2%	0.8%	88%
WN 1504 Southwest	DCA 09:31	MDW 10:40	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4479 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 15:35	MDW 16:45	17%	5%	0.7%	62%
WN 1506 Southwest	DCA 15:03	MDW 16:13	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1448 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 21:00	MDW 22:05	18%	7%	0.8%	46%
WN 1447 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 19:05	MDW 20:15	19%	6%	0.7%	38%
WN 2938 Southwest	DCA 13:08	MDW 14:17	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1444 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 09:25	MDW 10:20	19%	3%	0.7%	86%
WN 1445 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 12:00	MDW 13:00	22%	3%	0.7%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON