Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1493 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1493 DCA 06:55 → MKE 08:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5637 DCA 15:44 → MKE 17:06 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1493 Southwest	DCA 06:55	MKE 08:00	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1450 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 07:35	MKE 08:35	11%	4%	0.7%	90%
WN 363 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 15:45	MKE 16:55	25%	9%	0.6%	48%
AA 5286 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:23	MKE 12:34	27%	10%	1.0%	73%
AA 5656 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:00	MKE 23:09	27%	11%	1.6%	66%
WN 1229 Southwest	DCA 15:10	MKE 16:16	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 5637 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:44	MKE 17:06	30%	11%	1.2%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON