Today: DL 5645 at 15:20 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–28%.

Safest bet today DL 5645 DCA 15:20 → MSN 16:39 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 5221 DCA 21:25 → MSN 22:56 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 5645 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:20	MSN 16:39	14%	4%	0.2%	80%
AA 4523 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 16:29	MSN 18:07	14%	4%	0.2%	95%
AA 5221 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 21:25	MSN 22:56	28%	13%	0.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON