Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:38 am at Washington)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:45, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	9h 05m	96%	88%
Southwest Details →	DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978	3h 51m Las Vegas	LAS 22:21 → OAK 00:00 +1WN 4605	10h 35m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	DCA 19:05 → MDW 20:15WN 1447	1h 25m Chicago	MDW 21:40 → OAK 00:15 +1WN 4042	8h 10m	88%	57%
Southwest Details →	DCA 14:00 → DAL 16:10WN 3660	1h 20m Dallas	DAL 17:30 → OAK 19:14WN 1894	8h 14m	85%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3	48m Seattle	SEA 20:47 → OAK 22:52AS 706	8h 52m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON