Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3509 at 14:54 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3509 DCA 14:54 → OKC 17:22 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5138 DCA 13:59 → OKC 16:20 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3509 Envoy	DCA 14:54	OKC 17:22	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1188 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 16:30	OKC 18:35	33%	8%	0.6%	27%
WN 1242 Southwest	DCA 15:35	OKC 17:51	33%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 5138 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:59	OKC 16:20	35%	12%	1.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON