tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:21 am at Washington)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DCA 07:30 → MDW 08:25WN 1442 3h 30m Chicago MDW 11:55 → ONT 14:09WN 3508 9h 39m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 2h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 9h 03m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2243 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:26 → ONT 09:48AA 1820 7h 48m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325 3h 26m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 10h 21m 96% 75%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 10:35 → BNA 11:30WN 1426 2h 25m Nashville BNA 13:55 → ONT 16:00WN 855 8h 25m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:06 → DFW 07:34AA 2007 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:46 → ONT 12:06AA 2956 10h 00m 100% 72%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978 3h 55m Las Vegas LAS 22:25 → ONT 23:35WN 2135 10h 10m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:12 → ONT 13:24AA 2635 9h 25m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746 55m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 29m 70% 46%
UnitedDetails → DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148 46m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 7h 41m 55% 44%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 1h 06m Charlotte CLT 20:43 → ONT 22:34AA 3036 7h 44m 69% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON