Today: YX 4470 at 12:59 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–36%.

Safest bet today YX 4470 DCA 12:59 → PIT 14:20 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5095 DCA 17:18 → PIT 18:37 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4470 Republic	DCA 12:59	PIT 14:20	17%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 4796 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:59	PIT 16:18	20%	4%	0.2%	68%
AA 4763 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:35	PIT 21:45	20%	5%	1.0%	69%
AA 1985 American Flight history →	DCA 17:00	PIT 18:14	31%	10%	0.2%	45%
OH 5095 PSA	DCA 17:18	PIT 18:37	36%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON