Today: MQ 3336 at 22:29 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–39%.

Safest bet today MQ 3336 DCA 22:29 → PVD 23:55 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5334 DCA 12:59 → PVD 14:30 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3336 Envoy	DCA 22:29	PVD 23:55	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 4679 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:59	PVD 20:34	16%	5%	0.8%	65%
WN 1691 Southwest	DCA 16:55	PVD 18:22	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 284 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 16:25	PVD 17:55	18%	5%	0.6%	42%
WN 1525 Southwest	DCA 10:45	PVD 12:12	21%	8%	0.4%	no record
WN 3529 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 10:50	PVD 12:15	21%	7%	0.4%	98%worse than usual
AA 337 American Flight history →	DCA 15:29	PVD 17:02	22%	5%	0.9%	64%
AA 5017 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:28	PVD 23:59	25%	9%	1.2%	56%
AA 5438 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:10	PVD 16:52	25%	10%	0.8%	59%
AA 5619 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:59	PVD 11:42	26%	9%	1.4%	88%worse than usual
OH 5560 PSA	DCA 18:34	PVD 20:14	27%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 5337 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:00	PVD 11:30	30%	10%	1.4%	76%
AA 3142 American	DCA 12:57	PVD 14:24	31%	16%	0.4%	no record
AA 5334 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:59	PVD 14:30	39%	23%	1.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON