Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2916 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2916 DCA 07:51 → RSW 10:42 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 2454 DCA 13:59 → RSW 16:37 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2916 American Flight history →	DCA 07:51	RSW 10:42	25%	4%	2.7%	70%
AA 2448 American Flight history →	DCA 10:46	RSW 13:24	30%	6%	3.0%	74%
AA 2454 American Flight history →	DCA 13:59	RSW 16:37	37%	9%	2.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON