tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:54 am at Washington)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 15:13, is the safest bet: 31% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1947 American Flight history → DCA 18:32 SAT 21:13 38% 12% 0.2% 57%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DCA 18:40 → STL 20:00WN 1462 2h 15m St Louis STL 22:15 → SAT 00:25 +1WN 3979 6h 45m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325 3h 06m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 8h 27m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:44 → MIA 16:29AA 2915 3h 05m Miami MIA 19:34 → SAT 21:38AA 1468 8h 54m 100% 69%
AmericanDetails → DCA 16:57 → ORD 18:07AA 1189 3h 12m Chicago ORD 21:19 → SAT 00:10 +1AA 431 8h 13m 98% 67%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978 2h 25m Las Vegas LAS 20:55 → SAT 01:40 +1WN 2335 10h 15m 94% 66%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746 2h 14m Denver DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395 8h 42m 95% 65%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:55 → IAH 17:14UA 1381 2h 51m Houston IAH 20:05 → SAT 21:13UA 1542 7h 18m 96% 64%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 15:00 → MCI 16:40WN 1146 1h 25m Kansas City MCI 18:05 → SAT 20:11WN 1498 6h 11m 83% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 1h 00m Detroit DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365 5h 53m 71% 49%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 16:25 → LAS 18:30WN 978 55m Las Vegas LAS 19:25 → SAT 00:10 +1WN 4526 8h 45m 67% 39%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → SAT 19:43AA 499 5h 30m 52% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON