Today: AA 4753 at 11:48 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–28%.

Safest bet today AA 4753 DCA 11:48 → SDF 13:36 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 4672 DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4753 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:48	SDF 13:36	17%	4%	0.5%	77%
MQ 4023 Envoy	DCA 15:39	SDF 17:37	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 4672 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:45	SDF 21:40	28%	9%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON