Today: MQ 4223 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–37%.

Safest bet today MQ 4223 DCA 10:15 → SYR 11:43 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5418 DCA 18:28 → SYR 19:58 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4223 Envoy	DCA 10:15	SYR 11:43	20%	4%	1.0%	no record
YX 4555 Republic	DCA 15:49	SYR 17:29	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 5589 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:24	SYR 12:48	24%	7%	1.1%	69%
AA 3975 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 22:59	SYR 00:20	26%	8%	1.2%	58%
AA 5418 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 18:28	SYR 19:58	37%	9%	1.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON