Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:45 pm at Washington)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 3452 at 19:57, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 3452 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 19:57	XNA 21:51	29%	6%	0.4%	82%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 23:03 → XNA 00:04 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	6h 34m	90%	67%
United Details →	DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → XNA 23:31UA 5767 · flown by SkyWest	6h 21m	92%	64%
Delta Details →	DCA 19:36 → ATL 21:37DL 1007	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 22:49 → XNA 23:50DL 4441 · flown by SkyWest	5h 14m	80%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 19:37 → ATL 21:44DL 950	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:49 → XNA 23:50DL 4441 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	75%	55%
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	58m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → XNA 23:31UA 5767 · flown by SkyWest	5h 21m	69%	48%
American Details →	DCA 20:06 → ORD 21:42AA 2903	48m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → XNA 00:26 +1AA 3960 · flown by Envoy	5h 20m	56%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON