Today: WN 3056 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–32%.

Safest bet today WN 3056 DEN 07:50 → ABQ 09:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest UA 484 DEN 19:20 → ABQ 20:44 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3056 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	ABQ 09:15	5%	1%	0.2%	98%
WN 865 Southwest	DEN 08:35	ABQ 10:00	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
UA 1733 United	DEN 08:18	ABQ 09:50	7%	3%	0.1%	no record
UA 5487 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:05	ABQ 09:33	9%	4%	0.2%	93%
UA 476 United	DEN 11:22	ABQ 12:51	14%	4%	0.1%	no record
UA 1402 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	ABQ 12:37	14%	4%	0.1%	76%
UA 1594 United	DEN 13:33	ABQ 14:58	17%	5%	0.1%	no record
WN 170 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:20	ABQ 12:40	17%	2%	0.1%	85%
WN 1527 Southwest	DEN 11:54	ABQ 13:19	17%	2%	0.1%	no record
UA 691 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	ABQ 15:12	17%	6%	0.1%	78%
OO 4728 SkyWest	DEN 15:57	ABQ 17:41	19%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 160 Southwest	DEN 15:35	ABQ 17:00	20%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4634 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:05	ABQ 17:35	21%	5%	0.4%	60%
UA 5880 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:08	ABQ 22:36	24%	8%	0.7%	84%
WN 1468 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	ABQ 22:25	24%	6%	0.5%	49%
UA 4761 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:11	ABQ 22:44	24%	9%	0.7%	68%
WN 1784 Southwest	DEN 21:21	ABQ 22:46	26%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 1966 Southwest	DEN 18:10	ABQ 19:34	26%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 484 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ABQ 20:44	32%	6%	0.5%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON