Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:30 pm at Denver); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 15:47, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Arcata/Eureka on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Arcata/Eureka is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	1h 30m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → ACV 20:24UA 2022	5h 37m	85%	60%
United Details →	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	2h 55m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest	7h 05m	92%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389	1h 15m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	71%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON