Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 27–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 176 DEN 11:19 → ALB 16:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1662 DEN 17:42 → ALB 23:30 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 176 Southwest	DEN 11:19	ALB 16:50	27%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 1159 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:40	ALB 17:15	30%	5%	0.1%	82%worse than usual
UA 1662 United Flight history →	DEN 17:42	ALB 23:30	32%	10%	0.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON