Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1592 DEN 15:35 → ANC 19:12 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 2811 DEN 17:45 → ANC 21:15 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1592 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	ANC 19:12	26%	5%	0.2%	81%
UA 280 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	ANC 22:59	26%	6%	0.2%	79%
WN 2811 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:45	ANC 21:15	35%	6%	0.2%	32%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	DEN 12:26 → SEA 13:42AS 682	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 15:58 → ANC 18:37AS 99	8h 11m	94%	47%
Alaska Details →	DEN 17:57 → SEA 19:44AS 615	1h 31m Seattle	SEA 21:15 → ANC 23:55AS 771	7h 58m	86%	46%
Alaska Details →	DEN 16:36 → SEA 18:38AS 535	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 20:03 → ANC 22:46AS 1336	8h 10m	77%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON