Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 21–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 5781 DEN 20:25 → ASE 21:26 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 5779 DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 5781 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:25	ASE 21:26	21%	7%	1.3%	78%
UA 5771 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	ASE 14:44	23%	9%	1.2%	73%
UA 5697 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:22	ASE 17:26	24%	9%	1.3%	63%
UA 5769 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:18	ASE 12:26	25%	8%	0.8%	74%
UA 5775 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:25	ASE 18:29	25%	7%	1.3%	72%
UA 5773 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:07	ASE 16:08	25%	8%	1.1%	78%
UA 5779 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:10	ASE 20:11	26%	8%	1.3%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON