Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 341 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 341 DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 4170 DEN 14:35 → ATL 19:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 341 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:45	ATL 10:44	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 302 Delta Flight history →	DEN 00:40	ATL 05:42	8%	2%	0.3%	92%
DL 431 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:15	ATL 12:11	9%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 2235 Delta Flight history →	DEN 09:39	ATL 14:35	11%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	DEN 10:52	ATL 15:52	11%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	DEN 15:10	ATL 20:22	13%	5%	0.7%	85%
WN 2713 Southwest	DEN 08:30	ATL 13:32	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2424 United Flight history →	DEN 10:00	ATL 15:09	14%	5%	0.7%	85%
DL 824 Delta Flight history →	DEN 13:10	ATL 18:10	14%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 706 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:10	ATL 19:16	14%	6%	0.7%	83%
UA 2806 United	DEN 10:08	ATL 15:16	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 995 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:07	ATL 17:07	15%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 840 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:35	ATL 21:49	15%	5%	0.7%	82%
F9 3294 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:30	ATL 11:38	16%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 1671 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	ATL 18:30	22%	7%	0.7%	79%
WN 2258 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:45	ATL 15:35	24%	4%	0.6%	64%
UA 1305 United Flight history →	DEN 17:48	ATL 22:57	25%	9%	0.7%	72%
F9 3600 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:58	ATL 15:08	28%	9%	0.7%	75%
WN 1472 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	ATL 00:10	28%	9%	0.6%	12%
F9 1450 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 23:59	ATL 05:21	30%	12%	0.7%	65%
WN 4170 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:35	ATL 19:30	33%	8%	0.6%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON