Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2089 at 17:42, 31%.

Safest bet today UA 2089 DEN 17:42 → ATW 21:06 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 1560 DEN 19:50 → ATW 23:22 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2089 United	DEN 17:42	ATW 21:06	31%	10%	0.2%	no record
UA 1204 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	ATW 21:04	31%	9%	0.2%	57%
G4 1562 Allegiant Flight history →	DEN 19:18	ATW 22:39	45%	14%	0.5%	67%worse than usual
G4 1560 Allegiant	DEN 19:50	ATW 23:22	46%	15%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON