Today: WN 1536 at 07:49 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–45%.

Safest bet today WN 1536 DEN 07:49 → AUS 11:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1816 DEN 16:13 → AUS 19:34 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1536 Southwest	DEN 07:49	AUS 11:01	12%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 2263 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	AUS 13:20	18%	3%	0.2%	89%
UA 456 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	AUS 11:15	19%	5%	0.3%	95%worse than usual
UA 1026 United Flight history →	DEN 10:05	AUS 13:20	22%	8%	0.3%	82%
WN 2695 Southwest	DEN 21:00	AUS 00:13	23%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 970 Southwest	DEN 10:37	AUS 13:49	24%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:30	AUS 12:45	24%	8%	0.4%	85%
WN 1129 Southwest	DEN 18:56	AUS 22:08	24%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 1481 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:50	AUS 00:10	25%	5%	0.5%	47%
WN 4463 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:05	AUS 23:25	26%	5%	0.5%	71%
UA 1942 United Flight history →	DEN 18:39	AUS 21:57	27%	8%	0.7%	75%
WN 4610 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:20	AUS 14:30	30%	4%	0.2%	58%
UA 1943 United Flight history →	DEN 20:27	AUS 23:44	30%	8%	0.7%	67%
DL 3669 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:30	AUS 22:51	30%	10%	0.7%	70%
UA 2270 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	AUS 16:58	31%	11%	0.2%	83%worse than usual
WN 1538 Southwest	DEN 11:52	AUS 15:04	33%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 1496 Southwest	DEN 14:11	AUS 17:23	33%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 553 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:20	AUS 16:30	33%	7%	0.2%	48%
F9 2890 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 20:52	AUS 00:07	33%	13%	0.7%	65%
WN 1476 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:40	AUS 15:50	33%	7%	0.2%	48%
WN 1478 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:30	AUS 17:40	35%	8%	0.2%	58%
UA 1899 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	AUS 18:48	37%	11%	0.2%	78%worse than usual
WN 1764 Southwest	DEN 16:46	AUS 19:58	45%	10%	0.2%	no record
F9 1816 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:13	AUS 19:34	45%	19%	0.9%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON