Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1557 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1557 DEN 08:30 → BUR 10:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1497 DEN 20:25 → BUR 21:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1557 Southwest	DEN 08:30	BUR 10:04	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2929 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	BUR 09:15	6%	1%	0.6%	89%
UA 2154 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	BUR 12:48	13%	5%	0.6%	85%
WN 2620 Southwest	DEN 11:40	BUR 13:14	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 579 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:45	BUR 13:20	15%	3%	0.6%	69%
WN 4174 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:10	BUR 19:50	23%	8%	0.6%	63%
UA 2411 United Flight history →	DEN 19:13	BUR 20:43	27%	9%	0.6%	67%
WN 1497 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:25	BUR 21:55	31%	9%	0.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON