Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 826 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 826 DEN 07:50 → BZN 09:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 1347 DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 826 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	BZN 09:35	6%	1%	0.4%	83%
WN 2178 Southwest	DEN 08:40	BZN 10:25	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 348 United Flight history →	DEN 07:53	BZN 09:37	7%	2%	0.5%	93%
OO 4754 SkyWest	DEN 07:49	BZN 09:41	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1248 United Flight history →	DEN 11:32	BZN 13:20	11%	3%	0.5%	86%
UA 741 United Flight history →	DEN 11:34	BZN 13:20	11%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 513 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	BZN 15:33	11%	3%	0.5%	85%
UA 6030 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:15	BZN 17:10	12%	5%	0.6%	74%
WN 4219 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:30	BZN 14:10	14%	3%	0.4%	47%
WN 1505 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:45	BZN 23:35	16%	5%	0.4%	46%
WN 4790 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:50	BZN 18:35	16%	4%	0.4%	50%
UA 1347 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	BZN 21:14	18%	6%	0.5%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON