Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 619 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 619 DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2337 DEN 19:30 → CLE 00:25 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 619 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	CLE 14:36	11%	3%	0.4%	97%
F9 1918 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:00	CLE 10:58	13%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 2476 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	CLE 18:53	17%	5%	0.4%	90%
WN 1569 Southwest	DEN 10:35	CLE 15:31	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1790 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CLE 22:41	23%	6%	0.5%	75%
WN 1506 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:20	CLE 17:10	25%	4%	0.5%	85%worse than usual
F9 4638 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:41	CLE 20:47	27%	10%	0.7%	70%
WN 2337 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:30	CLE 00:25	31%	6%	0.5%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON