Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 573 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 573 DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1362 DEN 13:41 → CLT 19:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 573 American Flight history →	DEN 06:41	CLT 12:04	9%	4%	1.6%	94%
AA 2744 American	DEN 00:03	CLT 05:24	14%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 2231 United	DEN 09:57	CLT 15:22	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1754 American Flight history →	DEN 10:00	CLT 15:31	19%	4%	1.3%	81%
AA 3156 American Flight history →	DEN 23:59	CLT 05:13	20%	3%	1.8%	67%
AA 1410 American	DEN 10:05	CLT 15:14	22%	5%	1.6%	no record
UA 616 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	CLT 23:08	22%	8%	0.6%	71%
AA 1735 American Flight history →	DEN 15:57	CLT 21:27	26%	7%	1.3%	54%
AA 1758 American Flight history →	DEN 13:56	CLT 19:22	30%	6%	1.3%	75%
F9 1362 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:41	CLT 19:00	30%	7%	0.7%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON