Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: UA 8107 at 17:28, 33%.

Safest bet today UA 8107 DEN 17:28 → CMH 22:21 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2720 DEN 18:45 → CMH 23:32 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 8107 United	DEN 17:28	CMH 22:21	33%	10%	0.4%	no record
UA 1843 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CMH 22:37	33%	10%	0.4%	77%
WN 2720 Southwest	DEN 18:45	CMH 23:32	48%	9%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON