Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:07 pm at Denver)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 5797 at 17:30, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 5797 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:30	COU 20:39	25%	7%	0.4%	83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbia is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DEN 12:23 → ORD 15:55AA 2363	3h 34m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → COU 21:01AA 3745 · flown by Envoy	7h 38m	95%	81%
United Details →	DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → COU 23:33UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	7h 32m	96%	78%
American Details →	DEN 12:34 → ORD 16:31AA 1744	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 19:18 → COU 20:41AA 3696 · flown by Envoy	7h 07m	92%	77%
American Details →	DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → COU 22:20AA 4282 · flown by Envoy	6h 09m	89%	74%
American Details →	DEN 13:56 → CLT 19:22AA 1758	1h 18m Charlotte	CLT 20:40 → COU 21:52AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	6h 56m	85%	71%
American Details →	DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:47AA 2359	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:13 → COU 18:56AA 3890 · flown by Envoy	5h 17m	84%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 14:25 → CLT 19:40AA 1662	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 20:40 → COU 21:52AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	6h 27m	74%	62%
American Details →	DEN 14:34 → ORD 18:29AA 1760	49m Chicago	ORD 19:18 → COU 20:41AA 3696 · flown by Envoy	5h 07m	67%	55%
American Details →	DEN 16:23 → DFW 19:34AA 1832	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → COU 22:20AA 4282 · flown by Envoy	4h 57m	60%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON