Today: UA 1978 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–38%.

Safest bet today UA 1978 DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3286 DEN 11:20 → CVG 16:12 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1978 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	CVG 14:27	11%	3%	0.2%	93%
UA 1615 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CVG 22:28	25%	8%	0.7%	76%
WN 1297 Southwest	DEN 14:05	CVG 18:47	31%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 1251 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:10	CVG 19:45	31%	4%	0.2%	35%
F9 3286 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:20	CVG 16:12	38%	10%	0.7%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON