Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1388 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1388 DEN 05:55 → DAL 08:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time Riskiest WN 1522 DEN 19:05 → DAL 22:05 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 24% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1388 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:55	DAL 08:53	4%	1%	0.6%	38%
WN 1078 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:10	DAL 08:05	4%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 1517 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 06:15	DAL 09:10	5%	1%	0.6%	87%
WN 1572 Southwest	DEN 07:45	DAL 10:43	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1360 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:45	DAL 11:40	9%	1%	0.6%	72%
WN 1518 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	DAL 13:10	13%	2%	0.6%	75%
WN 2956 Southwest	DEN 09:48	DAL 12:45	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1408 Southwest	DEN 10:48	DAL 13:45	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2354 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:40	DAL 14:45	16%	2%	0.6%	63%
WN 4758 Southwest	DEN 12:53	DAL 15:51	21%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1521 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:50	DAL 21:05	24%	5%	0.6%	39%
WN 1523 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:30	DAL 23:30	25%	4%	0.6%	41%
WN 1522 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	DAL 22:05	30%	5%	0.6%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON