Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:06 am at Denver)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 2635 at 18:08, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 2635 United	DEN 18:08	DAY 22:59	28%	12%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279	1h 03m Dulles	IAD 12:44 → DAY 14:18UA 4241 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 05m	95%	79%
United Details →	DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101	3h 49m Dulles	IAD 17:15 → DAY 19:01UA 4274 · flown by CommuteAir	9h 01m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:20 → DAY 23:51DL 3167	7h 41m	98%	76%
American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → DAY 13:04AA 5163 · flown by PSA	6h 04m	95%	76%
American Details →	DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 15:30 → DAY 17:12AA 5198 · flown by PSA	8h 31m	98%	74%
American Details →	DEN 12:34 → ORD 16:31AA 1744	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 20:30 → DAY 22:52AA 4972 · flown by SkyWest	8h 18m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → DAY 15:04DL 2763	7h 19m	99%	72%
United Details →	DEN 07:48 → ORD 11:29UA 1928	3h 31m Chicago	ORD 15:00 → DAY 17:30UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest	7h 42m	100%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:30 → DAY 18:02AA 5156 · flown by PSA	5h 24m	59%	42%
American Details →	DEN 14:25 → CLT 19:40AA 1662	49m Charlotte	CLT 20:29 → DAY 22:09AA 5174 · flown by PSA	5h 44m	55%	39%
United Details →	DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617	46m Chicago	ORD 17:51 → DAY 20:22UA 4484 · flown by GoJet	4h 57m	62%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON